​Back in the mid-1980s, I took an occupational investigation class when I was in the 7th grade.  If I remember correctly, there was a fairly stout textbook involved that listed nearly all the jobs/professions of the day.  Earning six-figures as a pilot stuck in my memory. 
 
At the time however, I was drawn to lawyers of “L.A. Law”, and the doctors in “St. Elsewhere.”  I wanted to be an obstetrician like Cliff Huxtable on “The Cosby Show.”  I knew any of these paths could be lucrative, but delivering babies seemed pretty rewarding. 
 
Then I saw a character in some movie utter something about going six-figures into debt to attend medical school.  I was out. 
 
This came back to me when I saw a story on National Public Radio’s website recently that reported on a growing trend; earnings in vocational trades are on the rise, while the returns to a college degree are “softening.”  There are organic and artificial market signals at the root of this, and I’m not alone in having experienced both. 
 
My sister and I grew up lower-middle class.  Our mom married our dad after graduating high school, while he was enrolled in a two-year stint at Del Mar Tech in Corpus Christi (now Del Mar College).  He took those skills into the Air Force before landing a welding job a few years later. 
 
As mom did some secretarial work, and dad moved to sales in the oilfield and school fundraising, it was expected that my sister and I would devote comparatively more time to college.  “If you don’t know what to major in, just get a business degree,” I remember him saying.  Such a path was seen as the way to a comfortable life, and no doubt it still is.
 
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate is half to three-quarters lower, and median earnings are 50-250% higher the more educated you are. 
 
Enter the artificial signal.
 
The Federal Family Education Loan program, part of President Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society,” created a government backstop for banks that lent to college students.  This gave way in 2010 to the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act (HCERA).  Private sector involvement ended in favor of total control by the Department of Education (DoE).  HCERA also lowered the required monthly repayment and moved up the time at which the remaining balance could be forgiven. 
 
In the interim, the Grad PLUS program of 2005 expanded the availability of government loans to graduate students, many of which fall under the same loosened repayment options.
 
Add it all up and the amount of federal student loans outstanding has more than doubled in the last ten years alone, to $1.4 trillion.
 
To be sure, I utilized such loans to earn my undergraduate degree, and I might have to again for my daughters.  However, I paid them off a few years later, albeit back when moral hazard and perverse incentives were a bit clearer. 
 
Before I took my first university class though, I paid my way through community college.  According to the BLS, there are myriad jobs that require only a year or two of training and/or education. 
 
At the five Alamo Community Colleges here in San Antonio, you could earn an associate’s degree in water resource sciences and pull down almost $50,000 per year.  Nursing and dental assisting programs prep students to clear $70,000.  One year of study can secure plumbing skills that could fetch almost $60,000.  One of my daughters, having expressed an interest in volunteering at animal shelters, might like to know she could earn a veterinary tech degree and make $30,000-$40,000. 
 
Furthermore, companies like mine reach out to schools like mine when looking to staff their IT departments.
 
In addition to a high graduation rate, one of the reasons my school was ranked #1 in Texas last year was affordability.  60 hours of education and/or training can be had here for less than $6,000 for San Antonio residents.
 
If kids today are anything like I was, there are more than a few who are uncertain about the direction they want to go after high school.  For much less cost, and quite likely no borrowing, they could learn a skill that could pay them handsomely before they’re even of legal drinking age.  It could also be a big source of funding for continuing education at the university level. 
 
In the absence of that, or perhaps other debt-free options such as income-sharing agreements, if borrowing is still necessary, it should take place wholly within the private sector. 
 
When you juxtapose studies that compare the lowest earning quartile of college graduates to high school graduates, with earnings-per-major information compiled by the DoE, it’s not a stretch to conclude that this is another example of what happens when politicians meddle in the market; taxpayers are left holding the bill.  And if you were one of the borrowers, that’s two bills for you; three, if you count the tax hit on a forgiven balance.
 
Private investors and banks have an incentive to survey the occupational landscape to see which fields have, or could have, a growing demand for qualified labor, and therefore will likely experience rising wages.  That incentive is business survival.  Wherever they see supply outstripping demand, they’re likely to shy away from investing therein.  That would in turn be an incentive to a prospective student to perhaps consider another course of study if applying for assistance. 
 
Add that type of scrutiny in educational financing, to the appeal of higher wages accruing to jobs that require just a year or two of training, and watch university tuition drop. 
 
If only I’d realized back then how affordable and relatively brief pilot training was …  Oh well, maybe it is indeed never too late to be what you might have been.

Last year, the college where I teach economics, Northwest Vista, was the ranked #1 in Texas.  While a graduation rate quite a bit higher than most no doubt played a big part, we also rated just two out of five “$”s when it came to affordability.  Starting this fall, my department will take a step further in that direction when we adopt OpenStax, a web-based textbook created by a nonprofit based at the top university last year, Rice.
 
So far, I like what I see.  “Impact of Government Borrowing” is a new chapter for us.  It strikes me as a way to beef up the “Fiscal Policy” chapter with a discussion of consequences.
 
As one who values the freedom and liberty codified in our constitution, I used to think it might be a challenge to cover the policy chapters.  It’s in those chapters where economics becomes more intertwined with government and politics, and the voters who drive them, some of whom sit in my classroom.
 
Over time however, it’s become apparent to me that the topic speaks for itself. 
 
This came to mind when I happened upon a passage recently from another textbook, “Modern Principles of Economics” by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok, professors at George Mason University and fellows at the Mercatus Center.  I actually use some of their videos in my classes.  The topic was fiscal policy over the course of the business cycle. 
 
The authors allude to Keynesianism, the practice of increasing government spending during a recession in order to fill the resulting gap in aggregate demand.  Some, like unemployment benefits, food stamps (SNAP) and health insurance, happen automatically.  Our society has come to accept such short-term aid as a small cost of living in a prosperous, relatively free-market economy which is naturally susceptible to cyclical downturns. 
 
Occasionally efforts are also made to include job training, public works, etc.  History does not look fondly upon the results however, when the discretionary extras come to life, and any of it lingers. 
 
In response to the Great Recession, Presidents Bush (W) and Obama signed off on $1.5 trillion in spending to bail out financial institutions, auto makers and prop up the economy in general.  The federal government also regularly extended unemployment benefits to 99 weeks. 
 
From 2008 - 2011, the federal budget deficit measured almost 8% of gross domestic product (GDP), on average annual spending increases of 7%, according to Office of Management and Budget data.  In that time, the unemployment and labor force participation (LFP) remained under strain; the former hovering just under 9%, the latter starting its slide to a historical low of 62-63%.

Then Uncle Sam tightened his belt.  Spending cuts of almost $1 trillion over ten years were set in motion in 2011.  He also let unemployment benefits return to the standard 26 weeks, an action reinforced by some states.  The deficit-to-GDP ratio subsequently dropped almost to 3% over the next few years.  Also starting a steady drop was unemployment. 
 
Unfortunately, the LFP continued to drop as well, though not as solely attributable to the retirement of Baby Boomers as some might suspect.  Around two million people had dropped out of the labor force and filed for disability, a program that itself has experienced increased payouts since criteria were loosened in 1984.  
 
Over the course of the last ten years, we’ve been told that such spending measures were necessary to avoid another Great Depression.  Back then, after an initially modest spending response, a fiscal explosion took hold.
 
Despite having approved of $500 million in the summer of 1929 to help farmers suffering from falling crop prices, before committing any more taxpayer resources, President Hoover first tried to cajole industry leaders to resist natural market forces in the aftermath of the stock market crash.  He would eventually agree to $5 billion in aid to businesses and state and local governments in 1932. 
 
This paved the way for average annual spending hikes of 13-14% for the balance of the 1930s, the nature of which resembled a rollercoaster ride; spiking beyond 28% in some years, while dropping a couple percentage points in other years.  The budget deficit averaged almost 4%. 
 
It was in this era when John Maynard Keynes wrote “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” (1936), thus giving rise to the aforementioned school of thought.  The spending embodied by the “alphabet soup” of government aid to the economy fit nicely into this new way of thinking.  Attempting to “pay the bills” at the same time conversely, did not. 
 
Once Hoover resigned himself to the position that government intervention was necessary, his instincts to balance the budget followed.  Having already raised taxes on consumers by way of the widely criticized Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, he approved raising a variety of taxes in 1932, the top rate on income more than doubling from 25% to 63%.  As he did with spending, President Roosevelt (FDR) took the baton from Hoover and raised taxes even further in 1935 and 1936. 
 
The economy subsequently struggled nearly the whole decade to return to where it was before the downturn in terms of nominal GDP, and unemployment fluctuated between 15-20%, spiking to almost 26% at one point.

​As hinted at previously, the Great Depression informed another part of the Keynesian concept regarding fiscal policy; don’t raise taxes.  In fact, lower them.  Deficit spending is advisable when trying to blunt the effects of a recession.  Concern for “paying off the bill” should be postponed until “good times.”  But even then, Uncle Sam has learned that “taxing more” to do so can be a dicey proposition with the people.

​Notwithstanding that, whether or not those bills even get paid depends upon how they are viewed. 
 
When times are good, many folks probably aren’t thinking all that much about what the government is doing with the chunk of their income it already takes.  “We’re flying high; what’s the worry?”  Think back a couple decades.  5% yearly increases in spending and “revenue enhancers” in the early 1990s produced budget deficits of almost 4% of GDP.  After that figure dropped below 1% on the backs of reduced spending and tax reduction in the latter part of the decade, GDP averaged a point and a half higher while unemployment started dropping after flatlining around 5.5% mid-decade.  

All of this culminated in the Halley’s Comet of government figures; budget surpluses from 1998-2001. 
 
Rumblings could be heard about “shoring up social security,” paying down the $5+ trillion national debt, and the perennial favorite, “rebuilding infrastructure.”  Would that have made sense?  Possibly.  There is some logic to it if you accept things the way they are. 
 
But many don’t. 
 
With the dot-com bubble deflating, and bringing a recession with it, a bipartisan congress passed W’s $1.35 trillion tax cut in 2001.  Though it did have a Keynesian portion (remember the rebate checks?), it was supply-side in nature, with cuts in marginal and investment income rates.  If a government insists on “fighting a recession,” which is a normal, healthy part of the business cycle, at least attacking it from this angle tends to provide the biggest bang for the buck in the long run, as opposed to spending measures orchestrated by government bureaucrats.
 
Paying down some of the aforementioned bills instead would have been construed by some as treating a symptom of what they see as the real problem; government spending. 
--
“When you run in debt, you give to another power over your liberty.” – Benjamin Franklin, “Poor Richards Almanack [sic]”

After World War II, much of the “New Deal” that had not already been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court was abolished.  President Truman’s own “Fair Deal” was largely rejected by congress, and President Eisenhower continued to hold the line on spending so that the “reduction of taxes … a very necessary objective of government” could be addressed.
 
As a result, the budget remained largely in balance through the 1950s, the debt-to-GDP ratio kicked off a four-decade decline, and the unemployment rate averaged 4-5%.

Some costs of government spending are less obvious than others.
 
It tends to erode individuals’ motivation to work.  Why go punch a clock when the state can feed, house and entertain you?  It also wears away the incentive of companies to produce high-quality, low-cost goods.  Why go to the effort when the government will subsidize your operations, or protect you with trade barriers like tariffs or quotas?   
 
Another problem arises when the public sector competes with the private sector for resources.  When prices for inputs like labor or capital are bid up, the price of the final consumer good rises.  Americans get hit twice when their income taxes essentially travel a “bridge to nowhere.”  To make matters worse for example, whereas private stakeholders in DHL were able to cut their losses when the company pared back operations here until recently, American citizens are stuck with the regular losses of the U.S. Post Office.
 
Supporting all this spending requires a commensurate level of taxation.  To pay those taxes, disposable income is diverted from otherwise productive endeavors, like investing in companies that employ workers, workers who need inputs from yet other companies to do their jobs.  If this isn’t happening, people buy goods and services for themselves that are necessarily supplied by still other companies. 
 
Moreover, the U.S. tax code is fairly complex, so much so there’s even debate about the number of pages.  Regardless, Americans spend billions of hours and billions of dollars each spring to pay their bill.  That's a  deadweight loss to society.   
 
When that still fails to bring in enough revenue for regular operations, government borrows.  
--
“There is nothing so permanent as a temporary government program.” – Milton & Rose Friedman, “The Tyranny Of The Status Quo” (1984)
 
The budget surpluses that resulted from Eisenhower’s early spending restraint paved the way for President Kennedy’s income tax cuts, with the top rate dropping from 90% to 70%.  Then came the advent of President Johnson’s (LBJ) “Great Society”: declaring “war on poverty” in 1964; the creation Medicaid and Medicare in 1965 and 1966, respectively; and increased federal spending on education in 1965. 
 
Even though revenue surged by an annual average of 8% during this time, spending grew by 10-11%, with welfare, health and education outpacing that of defense.  As we proceeded through the inflationary grind of the 1970s, the deficit climbed back over 2% of GDP. 
 
Despite this, the debt-to-GDP ratio had sunk to its modern-day nadir of 31% when President Reagan took office.
 
Since then, according to U.S. Debt Clock.org, after dropping from almost 2/3 of the federal budget to just over 1/3 in 1990, health and income security entitlements have gradually crept back up to almost 60%.  Defense spending has slid to an average of 21%. 
 
By the time W signed off on reducing taxes, the “bills to be paid” had accumulated to push the national debt to 55% of GDP, while the accompanying interest obligation accounted for roughly 13% of the federal budget. 
 
Incurring debt is not absolutely a bad thing.  In fact, it’s generally advisable if the return-on-investment (ROI) is greater than the interest paid.  Additionally, there’s a reason Uncle Sam is able to borrow so prolifically; investors regard it as one of the safest investments in the world.  After all, if they’ll lend to some of the least economically-free countries in the world, throwing a line to #18 barely rates as a blip on the radar.  Borrowing to fund consumption however, is recommended by nearly no one as a smart financial move.
 
Many of those who pushed for the tax reductions of 2001 and 2003 rejected “paying the bills” as is at the expense of lower taxation.  Proper reform was, and still is needed.
 --
“I should have understood that you want the government to give everyone free healthcare because you’re a good-hearted person who can’t do simple math.” – Roseanne to sister Jackie in the recently rebooted ABC comedy “Roseanne.”
 
Since social security’s introduction over eighty years ago, life expectancy has grown by roughly a decade, while the age to qualify for benefits has inched forward only two years, and even that reform required a 22-year lead time.  Surely even the current beneficiaries, who no doubt contributed to the decades-long declining birthrate that has chipped away concurrently at the worker/retiree ratio, can see past such political scare-tactics as pushing grandma off a cliff to the need for reform.
 
For his part, W proposed allowing more personal control over a portion of what taxpayers pay into the system.  It went nowhere. 
 
Few issues fit the proverbial “definition of insanity” better than our approach to education.  Uncle Sam has increasingly subsidized higher education with increasingly forgivable student loans, which very possibly contributes to an increasing skills mismatch.  We’ve been spending more and more money on education at all levels since LBJ, including the creation of a cabinet-level agency under President Carter, and getting mediocre results at best. 
 
In the absence of taking up serious proposals to free up the areas of education and health care, and redirecting responsibility to the ultimate beneficiaries, price inflation for these services has soared to as much as ten-times that of goods and services where the government footprint is much smaller, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.
 
In fact, we’ve regressed and arguably made the problem worse: adding prescription drug coverage to Medicare in 2003; the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001; and the expansion of Medicaid within the $1-2 trillion Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010.
 
In all, the federal budget has more than doubled during the first part of this century.
 --
“Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.” (loosely attributed to Winston Churchill)
 
After affirming that economists believe “ideal fiscal policy is counter-cyclical,” Cowen and Tabarrok address what they refer to as the “folk wisdom” of voters: “in bad times government should spend less and only in good times spend more.”     
 
It’s debatable whether or not government should spend more in bad times, but it would seem even less so in good times.  The economy would be expanding its potential GDP, unemployment would be low, wages solid, returns on investment healthy, etc.  There’d be little reason for the public sector to pile on. 
 
That there is “folk wisdom” about the government spending less in bad times makes more intuitive sense. 
 
Common sense tells us that we should cut back on expenditures as much as possible when the economy turns south.  That still might not be enough for those of us hit directly with a loss of income.  In such a case, those who adhered to one of the most ubiquitous bits of financial advice, “saving for a rainy day”, are quite possibly miffed when government jumps in to bail out those who lived more profligately, beyond their means.
 
Ultimately, I believe history and the discipline of economics speak for themselves.  To the former, I can point to the increased revenue that has resulted from every substantive tax reduction/simplification over the last century to show that the constitutional functions of government can still be adequately funded.  And to the latter, all I have to do in class is stick to the basics and “keep it simple, stupid.” 
 
A recent article in The Economist stated “good economics should involve using theory and data to quell prejudices.”  The key is merely having a rudimentary understanding.  Whether or not people choose educate themselves is another story.

I read a couple really good pieces the last couple Sundays in the San Antonio Express-News:
“The reality is that as a country we do a poor job of making financial literacy a priority. What we do instead is promote rampant consumerism and that works well for the companies that are beneficiaries of that. Most of the time it doesn’t lead to sustainable personal financial practices that enable someone to be successful over time.”
"Not only are there no good credit cards, the question itself feels wrong to me. It makes me cringe in all my sensitive finance places. I think of the question as the equivalent of asking a nutritionist what the best candy bars are for a college student. Or asking a substance abuse counselor what the very best narcotics would be for a graduating senior to take.
"They are all bad choices. Some could be less bad than others, but the product itself could not be intrinsically good, or advisable. No responsible financial adviser, nutritionist or drug abuse counselor should endorse any of these things."

And then my wife & I took our first stab at doing our taxes last weekend. The best thing that came out of that horrible experience was a possible teachable moment.
It'll already surprise no one who knows me that there's no way in hell I'd ever condone my daughters getting a credit card once they leave the nest (once I'm not supporting them anymore, or claiming them on my taxes, they're free to make their own such decisions). I already encourage them to save, but yesterday gave me another idea.
I'll advise them to have as little withheld from their paycheck as possible, and save on the side to pay their taxes. Then, hopefully, when they get the bill, they can a) pay it easily and b) be reminded of just how much Uncle Sam is ... how to put this nicely ... raking them over the coals, ESPECIALLY the more successful they are.
If they ever get a 'refund'* large enough to smile about, or do anything more than buy a nice dinner, I know I will have failed them in some small part.
* And it's NOT a refund. It's Uncle Sam returning to you the principle of a loan you gave to him INTEREST-FREE.

​I’ve been a huge Metallica fan for 30 years.  The intro to “Battery” off the thrash-terpiece album “Master Of Puppets” sucked me in.  Then when I saw my parents’ and their friends’ reaction to their cover of the Misfits’ profane “Last Caress”, I was hooked.  As I was reading a recent analysis in The Economist magazine, the title of an even more outrageous song they covered by the 1980s British punk band Anti-Nowhere League repeatedly came to mind; “So What?”
 
“The Case For Taxing Death” the cover read, complete with a skull fashioned partially out of a dollar bill.  The impetus was the easing of the estate tax in the reform bills that recently made their way through congress.  But the only thing for which the magazine really seemed to make a case was why individuals and/or entities shouldn’t get to keep all they have earned.
 
It starts out informatively enough, for those whose knowledge about “some of the world’s oldest taxes” is sketchy.  It cites a roman emperor, Teddy Roosevelt and philosophers such as John Stuart Mill and Jeremy Bentham, both of whom were generally predisposed to individual liberty, as favoring some form of inheritance or estate tax.  “Mere accident of birth shouldn’t entitle” one to great wealth.
 
It’s understandable to feel it’s not fair that the children of Sam and Helen Walton were born to a couple whose industriousness drove them to build one of the most commercially successful businesses in history, the value of which was subsequently bequeathed to them in the form of billions of dollars of Wal-Mart stock wealth.  It’s no more fair than the child that’s born to methhead parents who’d rather get high than get a job. 
 
What’s the alternative though, to that fortune staying in family hands?  It being taxed away by an entity that would merely redirect the funds into the hands of the less-diligent and/or less-driven, or into subsidized life-support for less successful companies?  (And any notion that WalMart’s bottom-line would take a significant, substantive long-term hit should these federal public assistance funds be pared back is too silly to be taken seriously.  It feeds into the preposterous, condescending implication that without government assistance, beneficiaries would simply starve, wither away and litter the streets with their malnutritioned bodies.) 
 
One of the points the article attempts to make regards the alleged laziness and incompetence of heirs. 
 
Not all family-business successors resemble the bumbling, book-cooking Ted Beneke from “Breaking Bad.”  Nor are they as selfish as the drugged-out, combed-over kung-fu fighter Bobby Pellit from 2011’s “Horrible Bosses.”  But even if some are, so what?
 
The authors point to an unsubstantiated “risk: that people with inheritances work less hard or drop out of the workforce altogether.”  There are plenty of people who don’t need inheritances not to work hard, much less at all.  Look no further than the 21st century downward trend that has dragged the labor force participation rate to historic lows.  And as a former chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers recently asserted, it’s not just reflective of retiring baby boomers. 
 
They also note research that “suggests that lottery winners work less,” and that the more one inherits, the more likely he/she is to “leave the labor force.”  Well duh!  I don’t imagine the recent Louisiana lottery winners of almost $200M ($119M after taxes) feel any particular pressure to continue to work to support themselves.  Having inherited many more times that, I bet the Walton children didn’t either.  But that they did, staying active in the management of WalMart, banking, community development, etc.  There are more than a few folks out there whose inner drive to be productive overwhelms any desire for perpetual leisure.  Pride in keeping the family business going probably plays a part as well.
 
On the other hand, the report is quick to point out that “the long-run effect … of inheritances … is to increase wealth inequality … in part because richer folk tend to save their windfall, in contrast to poorer folk, who spend it.”  Maybe the solution to this problem, such as it is, is in fact fewer/lower taxes, or at least fewer of the wrong ones, like those on work and saving.  Perhaps the focus should be on consumption taxes instead.  Unwinding artificial monetary policy that has only served to aid those with great means, while disincentivizing saving by those with less, would probably be helpful as well.
 
Yet another study is cited as claiming “firms that promote family CEOs see declines of 14% in operating return on assets.”  So what?  Wouldn’t multi-generational companies be at least as likely to suffer from the dynamism of a free market economy?  Even if my bosses’ daughter had taken over the video store where I worked after high school, Netflix likely would have devoured it more than a decade ago.
 
Another “so what” has increasingly come to mind during the current tax reform debate, that “the economic benefits of cutting such wealth-transfer taxes may have been overplayed and the drawbacks underappreciated.”  Since when did doing things for “economic benefit” come at the expense of doing the right thing; confiscating less of a free person or entity’s resources?  Many estates are the result of ingenuity, diligent work ethic, frugality, etc.  The very word “estate” implies a cumulative result of success.  It’s quite possible that they’ve already been taxed out the wazoo on multiple levels: the first building blocks of income, the resultant investment gains, the earnings from those investments … how much is enough?
 
There were other “so what” instances in this piece:

• “Observations from Sweden and America … suggest that … (p)eople save to insure against personal risks, rather than to pass on wealth when they die.”  So what? 
• “Research also suggests that … parents derive happiness from the pre-tax amount bequeathed, rather than what a child will receive after the tax is applied.”  So what?
• “In OECD countries, the proportion of total government revenues raised by such taxes has fallen from over 1% to less than .5% since the 1960s.”  So what?

 
The most troubling aspect of this report however, is captured in two passages: “wealth-transfer taxes ought to be the subject of more public debate,” and “is it sensible for the state to privilege family firms?”  The authors apparently believe government, and those who didn’t build the targeted estates, should get a say in what happens to said estates upon the death of he or she who built them.  It’s reminiscent of a notion JFK rejected during the Berlin Crisis of 1961: "What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable."
 
One is left to wonder if they are in the “you didn’t build that” camp.  Alas, there is nary a mention of the government “needing” money for education, roads, job-training, infrastructure, or any of the usual statist red herrings.  It’s almost as if they want companies to die with their makers, and a good chunk of the value be remitted to public coffers.
 
A nerd like me will always value a publication like The Economist, whether they’re running a “Six Big (economic) Ideas” series like they did this summer, or documenting the history and current relations between India and Pakistan in a multi-page special feature.  But sometimes the articles supporting government claims on private property just fall flat, that’s what happened here.  It left me anxious to do something else Metallica covered; “Turn The Page.”

It's been a pretty good year, considering I didn't actually write anything until May.  But here they are, chronologically, in their most prominent settings:
Tax Lingo for Dummies
The End Of The Boom/Bust Cycle?
'Do It For The Children': School Choice
Ice Cream, Hurricanes & 'Price Gouging'
Maybe Artificial Intelligence Can Expose Artificial Tax Arguments

​I’ve been caught in a lie.
 
For a while now I’ve been telling friends, family & classes “don’t fear the robots.  They’ll only make our lives easier, better.  If we don’t have jobs & income, we won’t be able to buy anything the robots make.”  Some folks have taken the “Terminator” movies’ Cyberdine Systems’ Skynet too seriously. 
 
After some more thought though, maybe we should fear them.  Maybe we should be wary of the ones that create misleading headlines & flimsy stories.  The ones programmed to manufacture self-righteousness warrant suspicion.  Worst of all are the cyborgs designed by their masters (more familiar to us as politicians elected by voters) to confiscate private resources from us once they’ve tied our hands. 
 
These particular robots have recently set their sights on tax reform. 
 
As if on cue, the politically cynical concern about the federal budget deficit is back in vogue.  This has come and gone as long as I remember.  Who is concerned at the moment depends on who is in power.  These days, it’s democrats who feign such anxiety since republicans hold all levers of federal control.  A few years back, republicans were the worry warts, and a few years before that it was democrats who were all hot and bothered by the red ink.  And so on and so on. 
 
Republicans’ problem is that they can no longer be taken seriously when it comes to curtailing spending, (itself a tax on productive society), which is the real problem.  Not only do some of them favor more, whether it be on defense, propping up Obamacare or building a border wall, but they’re not even willing to rein in the bloated leviathan that’s been built up over the last century. 
 
And as for democrats, no one who seriously thinks ‘the rich’ can fund the vast majority of government operations, and that such spending has a wealth-producing multiplier, could possibly know enough to care about budget deficits. 
 
Watching these two parties compete to show the most concern about the deficit is like watching a democrat leech and a republican leech attached to the American citizen arguing who’s responsible for the patient’s deficit of blood. 
 
Alas, too many in the media dig a good story, even if they don’t get to juice it up a little …
 
Meanwhile, you’re probably aware of the different, though predictable takes on tax reform proposals put forth by the usual suspects amongst the punditocracy, political class, etc.: the left wing thinks we shouldn’t enact ‘tax cuts (for the rich) at the expense of vital federal government programs’, while the right wing generally supports reform as a way to ‘kickstart the economy that will pay for itself’. 
 
But before the House GOP released their detailed plan, the aforementioned media had all they needed with the president’s 9-page “framework”.  MarketWatch even put out a calculator (which was also based partially on republican proposals of prior years) so folks could figure out how the guideline would affect them.  The story that grabbed my attention however, was on National Public Radio’s website.  It had the clickbait headline cautioning Americans not to pin their hopes on the “promised $4,000 raise from the GOP tax plan”.  In fairness, the piece clarified that there was no such promise, but that’s like T.V. lawyers who get to say something outrageous even if the remarks are ‘officially’ stricken from the record.
 
It seemed to reinforce this persistent notion that we live in a static society.  It’s that concept after all that informs the Congressional Budget Office’s predictions of the effects of legislation; $1 of tax cuts equals $1 of tax revenue lost by the government.  There’s no ripple effect whatsoever.  Private citizen’s behavior is unchanged.  In this case, a report by the president’s Council of Economic Advisers regarding reform of the corporate tax code was implied in the headline to predict an exact effect on individuals.
 
Nothing can be forecasted perfectly in a relatively free, dynamic economy, especially with so many other exogenous influences: new discoveries/inventions, business creation/closure, the regulatory state (a bright spot in the Trump administration), trade policy (a dark spot in the same), other legislation, events closer to home or on the other side of the world, alien invasion, etc.  I maintain faith that most productive members of society aren’t gullible enough to think that as soon as any corporate tax reform passes, they can expect a subsequent raise soon thereafter.  They know raises will continue to be based on the same core principles: how diligent are you at work, how much value are you adding to your company, how is your company doing, how is your industry doing, how is the economy doing, etc.  These kinds of things aren’t as easily predictable as a government handout. 
 
Another headline that jumped out at me came from ABC News’ website that reported “60% of Americans say Trump tax plan will benefit wealthy”.  Well, duh.  In the interests of equal treatment for all, it stands to reason that those who pay progressively more would realize more after-tax income as a result of ideal reform.  Apparently some wealthy folks not only want no part of it, but think no one else in their tax brackets should benefit from reduction and/or simplification either.     
 
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet, who once famously claimed that his secretary pays a higher rate of tax than he does, recently said “I don’t think I need a tax cut.”  Former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer piped in pleading “I’m a billionaire.  Please raise my taxes.”  And Morris Pearl, head of an outfit called Patriotic Millionaires, said that only the “poorest among us … should have tax cuts.”
 
Mr. Buffett’s secretary claim was sufficiently debunked by none other than Politifact, citing reasons that are apparently lost on Mr. Pearl; not only do most folks at such income levels fall into lower tax brackets, but they end up paying little-to-no net income taxes thanks to deductions and various loopholes.  Yet according to Mr. Steyer, it has been “at the expense of working families” that “upper-income people in the United States have done disproportionately well … for 35 years.”  I don’t know about you dear reader, but I’m struggling to remember the last time I felt “taken advantage of by the richest Americans.”
 
Surely with a political science degree from Yale, Mr. Steyer isn’t referring to cuts in the size of government.  After my weekly consultation with USDebtClock.org just now, I see that Uncle Sam is spending more than $4 trillion, is in a $20 trillion hole, and has $109 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  Regardless of the extra-constitutional functions for which he fears the deprivation of funds, it appears Uncle Sam’s operations continue apace.
 
And certainly as the holder also of an economics degree, he’s familiar with the concept of deadweight loss.  As John Stossel recently pointed out, the latest count is 7 billion hours that we devote to filing our taxes, “the equivalent of 3.7 million people working 40-hour weeks.”  If they are so eager to pay more taxes, I bet they could save some of that time and money by refraining from exploiting all the legal loopholes available to us all.  Failing that, the Bureau of the Fiscal Service is happy to accept “gifts and unconditional donations” on behalf of the federal government (whether or not such a donation is tax deductible is unclear).
 
Whether such folks feel a little guilty for skillfully navigating the system as it is set up, or would perhaps prefer to maintain their perch atop the same for which they might have lobbied, or whether they just don’t get it is anyone’s guess.  The core principle of this whole debate is a sensible one: the tax burden on laborers and wealth-creating entities should be as miniscule and simple as possible.
 
In a recent essay in the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Christoph Koch, chief scientist and president of the Allen Institute of Brain Science, explained the research that he’s been leading to “create technologies to enhance the processing and learning capabilities of the human brain” in response to AI (artificial intelligence, i.e. robots).  Such work he hopes could turn “anyone into a programmer” who could create a “precise and error-free piece of digital code … at the speed of thought”.
 
Hopefully the general public figures out how to use such technology in order to better decode the nonsense fed to us by public opinion makers and spinners.

​I have a weakness for ice cream.  Years ago regional favorite Blue Bell put out the most divine flavor to grace my palette; Caramel Sundae Crunch; vanilla ice cream swirled with caramel and chocolate-covered crushed-up bits of ice cream cones … it was the BOMB!

And then it was gone.  The little creamery in Brenham just ... stopped ... making it.  I considered special ordering it, but I drew the line at paying something like 10X what I did in the store.  I didn’t value it THAT much.

Fast-forward to this year.  I decided to give Blue Bell’s Sea Salt Caramel a try.  I love caramel, but marrying sugars and salts doesn’t do it for me.  I’m glad I took the dive though, because that’s some good stuff. 

And now IT has disappeared.  I haven’t been able to find it at any nearby grocery store for the last few weeks.  You'd think I'd have learned my lesson and stocked up like Elaine Benes hoarding sponges on “Seinfeld.”  But no, I didn't. 

Alas, if I had, you can bet there would have been a premium put on every bite, for both my daughters AND me.  Who knows when, or IF Blue Bell would ever make it again??  It would have been my version of a fine wine that you break open only on a special occasion.  Its scarcity has increased its value.

Now imagine it’s YOUR favorite food, and you did have the foresight to stock up in anticipation of such a possible shortage.  But instead of consuming it, you rely on selling it to make a living.  That's the dilemma vendors of water, gasoline, batteries and the like face when a hurricane like Harvey is heading their way.  They don't know when their next supply shipments are coming, or IF they’re coming.  They don't even know if their place of business will still be standing post-landfall.
 
Keep this in mind when demagogues start screaming about price gouging. These vendors are humans just like us, humans with strong enough nerve to risk a LOT to supply us with everything we want AND need.  And now, just like the rest of us, they’re facing what is hopefully just a temporary disruption of an important part of their life.  They don’t raise prices to screw consumers, but rather to defend their livelihood.
 
Or take for instance the guy who was filmed selling bottles of water out of the back of his truck in the parking lot of a WalMart in Houston as Harvey was bearing down.  The man filming the video berates him, presuming to know what he and his family needs, telling him he “should be ashamed of himself.” 
 
But why?  No one is forced to buy from him.  If someone values the water enough, they’ll pay for it, no coercion involved.  So what if he marks it up more than usual??  The whole episode invariably ends up being pro-consumer: either no one will buy the water and he’ll be forced to drop his price, or people will scoop all of it up, thereby luring in other suppliers who’ll offer a lower price in order to gain the business.  Some of my students seemed to know this on the first night of class last night.
 
Buyers and sellers, acting independently, will always bring about a result that is satisfactory to all parties.  We shouldn’t allow our emotions, our sense of envy or insecurity, or presumptuousness of others’ business, to demonize someone making a profit, especially when it’s fleeting and short-term.  The only individuals who profit from such intellectual and emotional gullibility are politicians, from BOTH major parties, wanting to look heroic.  The worst of them are only too happy to hook up some more dependents to the State.
 
In the meantime, HEB does more to endear itself to Texans by sending caravans of food, supplies, etc. to my hometown of Victoria, and other communities in the area hardest hit by Harvey.  As the mosque burning earlier in the year demonstrated, the free market of charity is as effective as any government action at helping people truly in need.
 
Especially here in the great Lone Star State. 

​I was pleasantly surprised earlier this year when I learned that my oldest daughter would have a choice of magnet schools here in San Antonio: health careers near the medical center, business at Holmes, science & engineering at Jay, communications at Taft and construction at Warren.   
 
Also around this time, Betsy DeVos was girding for a contentious confirmation battle over her appointment as Secretary of Education.  She faced hostile opposition both from senate democrats still sore about the presidential election, and from teachers unions and ‘public school’ advocates who oppose what Mrs. DeVos has pushed for years; more freedom of choice & parental control in K-12 education.
 
The Department of Education arguably shouldn’t even exist in the first place.  It is a prime example of those “powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people” as per the 10th amendment.  If the only thing Secretary DeVos ever did was fold that department, she would be a success.  Short of that, promoting more school choice is a close second.
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From t-ball to cheerleading, music lessons to gymnastics, my girls have run the gamut of extracurricular activities.  They’ve been as far away as the Y.M.C.A. downtown, or as nearby as baseball fields in Westover Hills.  Distance has never mattered as much as the organization with whom we signed up.    
 
Why can’t we have the same choice with their schools?  Because at least here in Texas, where you pay property tax for your primary residence determines the public schools for your children. 
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This issue didn’t appear on my radar until I took Dr. John Merrifield’s urban & regional economics course at UTSA.  He has spilled a lot of ink on this topic, including a few books, most notably perhaps 2001’s “The School Choice Wars”.  Having just become a father at the time only heightened my interest. 
 
We do have some semblance of choice here.  In addition to the magnet schools, children can literally be ‘grandfathered’ in to the NISD if their grandparents live here and provide "significant after-school care".  One of my daughter’s friends was able to go to the same elementary school because that’s where her mother taught.  Transfers are possible for a handful of other reasons, but “are generally denied due to lack of space”.  
 
If parents were allowed however, to use a proportionate amount of public revenue earmarked for education, they could send their kids to any school they choose, assuming it meets a minimum level of state-approved criteria (mastering certain levels of basic subjects by a certain grades).  Beyond that, the schools would be free to specialize however they see fit: art schools for musicians, painters & actors; schools that cater to kids who like to build things; culinary schools when Easy-Bake Ovens will no longer do; technology schools for computer geeks.  The possibilities are limitless. 
 
These schools would be free to set their own tuition: more than, less than or equal to the amount allotted to each child by the state.  But those prices would be unlikely to stay put.  For example, if a particular metro area turned out to have a higher concentration of young would-be engineers than schools to serve them, the price of tuition would in all likelihood rise … in the short term.  Parents might have to decide whether or not they value those schools enough to make up the difference.  As Dr. Merrifield reiterated to me recently, that’s one reason the current system is flawed; it lacks such price signals. 
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One point I stress in my classes is that suppliers react differently to prices than demanders do.  We’re all demanders, and thus familiar with that angle: price goes up, we buy less.  However, only a handful of us are suppliers (excluding the labor we supply when we go to work), and thus not wholly in-tune with how they react.
 
Those higher prices would emit a signal of opportunity for enterprising entrepreneurs.  To enter the market competitively, they’d have to charge lower tuition, offer more for the same price, or some combination of both.   To stay competitive, the existing schools might expand.  They also might extend financial assistance to those excelling students of lesser means.  What could be better for a school’s reputation than educating the best & brightest?
 
More choices, lower prices, better quality … what’s not for a consumer to like?? 
 
All this assumes of course, a light, basic regulatory touch.  Otherwise, innovation would be dulled, disincentives would arise, current market participants would become entrenched, etc.  In other words, a wet blanket thrown on progress. 
 
Alas, as it stands now the only price signal that exists in grammar school education is … real estate??
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We’re all familiar with good sides of town, and not-so-good sides of town.  The latter tend to be run-down, more susceptible to crime, gangs, etc.  Perhaps not surprisingly, that negatively impacts property values, and in turn minimizes property tax collections.
 
According to the Texas Education Agency, about 50% of public school funding derives from property taxes (roughly 10% comes from Uncle Sam, while around 40% comes from the Lone Star).  It hardly seems fair that a child’s education, the ultimate example of equality of opportunity, should be restricted  by a socioeconomic situation not of his/her making. 
 
The state legislature tried to remedy this a generation ago by passing what is commonly known as ‘Robin Hood’, whereby a school district that has “wealth per student that exceeds” a certain level subsequently has that excess “recaptured” and redirected to property-poor districts.


And a generation later, public school funding in Texas is still an issue.
 
Perhaps an alternative to property taxes could be a county or metro-area sales tax, a rate that would apply to ALL areas of town & the local economy uniformly.  This would be a most efficient way to pull the funds.  No more artificial inflation of property values.  One less inefficiency in the rental market.  A lesser tendency to build arguably exorbitant facilities tied as much to property wealth as student outcomes. 
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The Texas constitution states that the legislature “shall … make suitable provision for the support and maintenance of an efficient system of public free schools,”  so some traditional ‘public’ schools would remain.  Some parents may prefer the convenience of the nearby school.  Some may simply not be able to get a bead on what it is their child has a particular knack for.
 
It also states that “a general diffusion of knowledge” is “essential to the preservation of the liberties and rights of the people.”  Education has spillover benefits.  The knowledge & skills a student attains benefit the general public when employed on the push toward greater progress & prosperity. 
 
No one is more vested, or has a greater interest in this venture than we the parents.  My daughters are my best opportunity to make a positive impact on society.  Their mother & I are as integral to their education as anyone or anything.  It should be an option for us to fund their education with some portion of the taxes we pay, at whichever school we see fit.    
 
A market of millions of parents can’t be wrong.

I was pleasantly surprised earlier this year when I learned that, upon entering high school, my oldest daughter would have a choice of magnet schools here in San Antonio: Northside Health Careers near the medical center, Business Careers at Oliver Wendell Holmes HS, Science & Engineering at John Jay HS, Communication Arts at William Howard Taft HS and Construction Careers at Earl Warren HS.  Ever since she & her sisters were born, their mother & I have always kept our eyes open for any & all options available to us regarding their education. 
 
Also around this time, philanthropist & activist Betsy DeVos was girding for a contentious confirmation battle over her appointment as President Donald Trump’s education secretary.  She faced hostile opposition both from senate democrats still quite sore about the president’s electoral defeat of their nominee, Hillary Clinton, and from teachers unions and ‘public school’ advocates who oppose what Mrs. DeVos has pushed for years; more freedom of choice & parental control in K-12 education.
 
Let’s dispense with something first & foremost; the federal department of education arguably should not exist in the first place.  Nowhere in the U.S. Constitution is “education” or “school” mentioned.  It is one of the best examples of those “powers … reserved to the States respectively, or to the people” as per the 10th amendment.  If the only thing Secretary DeVos ever achieved while in office was to carry out Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie’s bill to abolish the DoE, she would rightly be hailed as a most successful public servant.  Short of that, promoting more school choice is a close second.
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From swim lessons, to t-ball, to cheerleading, to music lessons, to gymnastics … you name it, my girls have done it, with multiple organizations, some as far as 10-15 miles away from home.  We even chose as our pediatrician a doctor whose office was further away than that.  Not only has her replacement upon retirement been just as pleasant, but now she’s just a couple miles from the house. 
 
We personally would be lucky if doctors were ‘assigned’ to us the same way public schools are; place of residence.  But why should it be that way?  Why can’t we pick from a variety of schools like we do extracurricular activities?  Because at least here in Texas, where you pay property tax for your primary residence determines the public schools for your children.  That might be the only thing I like less about my great home state than the climate.
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This mystery didn’t occur to me until I took Dr. John Merrifield’s urban & regional economics course at UTSA.  He has spilled a lot of ink on the topic of school choice, including a few books, most notably perhaps 2001’s “The School Choice Wars”.  The fact that my first daughter was a toddler and her first sister was on the way at the same time only served to heighten my interest. 
 
We do have some semblance of choice here, exemplified in part by the aforementioned magnet schools.  Children can also literally be ‘grandfathered’ in to our district if their grandparents live within its borders and provide "significant after-school care".  One of my oldest daughter’s friends back in elementary school went there because that’s where her mother taught.  Transfers are possible for a handful of other reasons, but “are generally denied due to lack of space”.  
 
If parents were allowed however, to use as their initial round of funding, a proportionate amount of public revenue earmarked for that specific purpose, they could send their kids to any school they chose, assuming it meets a minimum level of state-approved criteria (children should be able to master a certain level of math by a certain grade, reading comprehension by a certain grade, knowledge of history, etc.)  Beyond that, the schools would be free to specialize however they AND the market sees fit.
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At an early age her mother & I noticed that our second-born liked putting things together.  Nowadays she has taken an interest in cooking & baking.  Our third daughter is somewhat athletically-inclined, while our fourth is kinda artsy.  Our oldest daughter is musically inclined, playing the baritone in high school band while taking piano lessons on the side. 

Those are just a few specialties around which schools could focus.  Maybe some of the places we patronize(d) would expand or merge their operations to include general schooling.  Some already provide after-school care.  The possibilities are limited only by our imagination, and that of enterprising entrepreneurs. 
 
Such schools would be free to set tuition at whatever level they deem appropriate: more than, less than or equal to the amount of the vouchers (NOT the dirty word demagogues make it out to be) allotted to each child.  But those prices would be unlikely to stay put.  For example, if a particular metro area turned out to have a higher concentration of young would-be engineers than schools to serve them, the price of tuition would in all likelihood rise to find a new market equilibrium.  Parents would have to decide whether or not they value those schools enough to make up the difference.  As Dr. Merrifield reiterated to me recently, that’s one reason the current system is flawed; a lack of price signals.  The subsequent shift in the balance of the market would be temporary, setting off an adjustment.
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As I’ve alluded to before regarding recent changes in the bee population, prices are not just the cost it takes for us to buy something.  There is a plethora of information wrapped up in the price of a good: the supply & demand of/for a good, cost of inputs, the availability of substitutes, preference for a particular good, etc.
 
One point I stress in my classes, THROUGHOUT the semester, is that suppliers react differently to prices than demanders do.  Since the entire population plays the part of a demander almost daily, we’re all familiar with that angle.  However, only a handful of us are suppliers (excluding the labor we supply when we go to work), and thus not wholly in-tune with how they react. 
 
Those aforementioned higher tuition prices would emit a signal; an opportunity for profit (another word soiled by irresponsible linguistic manipulators).  That would likely lure others to open up such schools.  In order to be competitive, the new market entrants would charge lower tuition, offer more for the same price, or some combination of both. 
 
To stay competitive, the existing schools might expand.  They also might extend financial assistance in the form of grants or scholarships to those excelling students of lesser means.  What could be better for a school’s reputation than educating the best & brightest?
 
In any event, what used to be a producer surplus would turn into a consumer surplus, as the market would be cleansed of inefficient/ineffective operators, all the while benefitting parents & children. 
 
All this assumes of course, a light regulatory touch.  As in nearly all markets, the more a public bureaucracy grows, the more innovation is dulled.  Disincentives arise.  The more standards are augmented, or altered, the more likely current market participants become entrenched at the expense of prospective new entrants (see the current debate over licensing).  All these would constitute a wet blanket that suppresses the price signals that fuel progress. 
 
Alas, as it stands now the only price signal that exists in grammar school education is … real estate??
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Even growing up in modestly-sized Victoria, TX (population 50,000), I learned there are good sides of town, and not-so-good sides of town.  The latter tend to be run-down, more susceptible to crime, illicit drug-related activity, gangs, etc.  Perhaps not surprisingly, that negatively impacts property values, and in turn suppresses property tax collections.
 
According to the Texas Education Agency, about 50% of public school funding derives from property taxes (roughly 10% comes from Uncle Sam, while around 40% comes from the Lone Star).  That hardly seems fair to those children born & raised in such property-poor settings.  Children’s education is the ultimate example of equality of opportunity, and it shouldn’t be restricted by a socioeconomic situation that was not of their making. 
 
A generation ago, after a couple of efforts by the legislature to remedy the situation were rejected by the state Supreme Court, the court eventually blessed what is commonly known as ‘Robin Hood’ (technically referred to as Chapter 41 Wealth Equalization).  A school district that has “wealth per student that exceeds” a certain level subsequently has that excess “recaptured” and redirected to property-poor districts.


And a generation later, public school funding in Texas is still an issue.
 
To make up the local component of funding for public education, perhaps an alternative to property taxes could be a county or metro-area sales tax that would be inclusive of ALL areas of town & the local economy.  This would be the most efficient, direct way to pull the funds.  No more artificial inflation of property values & taxes for childless homeowners and seniors on fixed incomes.  It would remove an inefficiency from the rental market.  It might also curtail the construction of arguably exorbitant facilities that are as tied to property wealth as they are to student outcomes.
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The Texas constitution states that “a general diffusion of knowledge” is “essential to the preservation of the liberties and rights of the people,” a point few would dispute.  Education is a prime example of a positive externality; the knowledge, skills & general human capital a student attains benefits society as a whole when employed on the push toward greater prosperity. 
 
The constitution also states that the state legislature “shall … make suitable provision for the support and maintenance of an efficient system of public free schools.”  Some number of traditional ‘public’ schools would remain where an education could be attained for the face value of the individual vouchers.  Moreover, some parents may prefer the convenience of the nearby school.  Some may simply not be able to get a bead on what it is their child has a particular knack for.
 
At the end of the day, no one is more vested, or has a greater interest in a child’s well-being & enlightenment than his/her parents.  My daughters are my best opportunity to have a positive impact on society.  Their mother & I are as integral to their upbringing & education as anyone or anything else.  Still, it should be an option for us to fund their education with some portion of the taxes we pay, at whichever school we see fit.  Every parent should have that option.   
 
A market of millions of parents can’t be wrong.